Could Democrats blow their lock on Cincinnati City Council?
Democrats have been part of the majority controlling Cincinnati City Council since the 1970s. But it wasn’t always that way. For decades, the GOP dominated city politics. It took a coalition formed by Democrats with the Charter Committee in the mid-1970s to break the Republican hammerlock on city hall.
But recent decisions of Cincinnati’s Democratic Committee (CDC) make me wonder whether the hubris of local party leaders sets Democrats up for an embarrassing fall in 2021.
The situation: Of the six Democrats elected to council in 2017, one is in jail, another awaits trial on bribery allegations and a third faces state felony charges. Two are term limited. Only one, Greg Landsman, seems assured of re-election. The whiff of scandal has tarnished the Democratic brand.
Nevertheless, the CDC has proclaimed that its candidates can no longer seek “cross endorsements” from its former Charter coalition partner, which helped Democrats like David Mann, Tamaya Dennard and Yvette Simpson in the past. Next, at a divisive virtual meeting, the CDC endorsed a 2021 ticket with only one candidate (Landsman) who has run for city office before, rejecting by a close vote past Democratic candidate Michelle Dillingham, who came within only about 300 votes of election in 2017.
Democrats’ potential opponents are formidable. By virtue of a quirk in state law, a GOP county judge replaced the indicted and suspended council members. Unelected GOP incumbents Betsy Sundermann, Liz Keating and Steve Goodin will do their best to connect in what is now a deep blue city.
Further, the Charter Committee, is seeking a renaissance with an unusually strong nine candidate council slate, including former Councilmembers Kevin Flynn and Jim Tarbell, well-known transit activist Cam Hardy, plus Republican incumbents Keating and Goodin, all unencumbered with city hall’s current scandalpalooza.
In the council race, you can finish in the top nine with less than a majority of the vote. Example: In 2017 there were 64,097 votes cast. With 62% of the vote, Democrat P.G Sittenfeld came in first. But Republican Jeff Pastor placed ninth with only 34% of the vote.
Getting just 34% of those who bother to vote may not sound like a heavy lift, but it’s never been easy. Voters sort through 20-30 typically unfamiliar names and often vote for less than nine. Winning typically requires substantial name recognition. Being an incumbent, elected or appointed always helps. But if you’re not already on council, it sure helps to raise lots of cash to buy recognition through mail, TV or social media. But without incumbency, cash or maybe a prominent family name, you typically must run more than once to finish in the top nine, even with a party endorsement.
Where does that leave this year’s Democratic slate? Only Landsman and appointed council member Jan-Michelle Kearney have a clear path to re-election. The remaining seven have never run for council before. None seem to have plump campaign treasuries. Further, by snubbing Michelle Dillingham, despite her animated base of support from past campaigns, party leaders have unnecessarily created ugly internal divisions.
All of that leaves an opening that will help the Republicans and Charter candidates as they jockey to deny Democrats the five seats required to control council. Yes, Cincinnati is now a deep blue city, as shown by the results in recent presidential races. But that doesn’t mean the whiff of scandal and a particularly weak slate of newcomers will not upend Democrats’ long grip on Cincinnati’s council come November.
