Another View By Don Mooney: All politics is not local; voters turn out for issues, not candidates
The dust has settled on the November local elections, but before we move on to the higher stakes of the 2022 midterm elections—when voters will pick Ohio’s next U.S. senator, governor and congressional delegation—let’s consider what we might have learned:
All politics is national now. The late U.S. House Speaker Tip O’Neill is famously credited with saying, “All politics is local.” No more. Look no further than Cincinnati’s City Council race.
In the past, name recognition, candidate records and issues typically drove who landed on council, regardless of political party. That helped independents such as Chris Smitherman, Charter candidates such as Jim Tarbe ll and Kevin Flynn, and Republicans such as Amy Murray and Charlie Winburn win consecutive terms in what has become an increasingly Democratic city.
Not this year. The city’s deeper-blue base struck close to home, electing eight of the nine endorsed Democrats. Only a lone Republican, incumbent Liz Keating, who, with a well-known name and ample campaign treasury, eked out a ninth-place finish. Left in the dust were two GOP-appointed incumbents (Betsy Sundermann and Steve Goodin) and former councilmen and Charter candidates Flynn and Tarbell. Remarkably, six of the victorious Democrats were rookies.
Voters did not hold Democrats accountable for the four Democratic council members in the last term who faced various charges. The four Democratic-endorsed candidates for the Cincinnati Public Schools Board of Education also swept into office. The lesson: In an age of extreme political polarization, party branding now counts more than past record, issues or name recognition, even at the local level.
Issues drive turnout, not candidates. Despite a record number of council candidates and the chance to elect a new mayor, most Cincinnati voters stayed home. Turnout was a paltry 25% of registered voters, worse since the 1970s, when the city was bleeding population.
Were voters too busy streaming Squid Game? Intimidated by the Delta variant? Or just so over politics after an exhausting 2020 election?
My theory: All those candidates failed to identify compelling issues that piqued voter interest. Compare that to 2017, when 33% of Cincinnati voters turned out to be heard on a controversial parks tax levy, with no council or mayor races on the ballot. Or look at this year’s Forest Hills and Wyoming school board races, where a focus on hot-button culture-war issues turned out 39% and 52% of voters, respectively. In the end, most city voters had more important priorities on Election Day and just said “never mind.”
Mayor Cranley’s lost coattails. After eight years in office, soon-to-be former Mayor John Cranley is hoping his next home will be in Columbus, in the governor’s mansion. While making no formal endorsement in the mayor’s race, Cranley lent many from his potent fundraising network and longtime backers such as the Fraternal Order of Police to support veteran Councilman David Mann. But Mann was swamped by Aftab Pureval, the younger and more charismatic county clerk of courts, whose positive campaign earned him the support of 65% of those who cared enough to be counted. Voters were clearly ready to turn the page in that corner office on Plum Street. It’s probably not a good sign for Cranley’s long-shot gubernatorial campaign.
Pay no attention to local pundits and pollsters. The Enquirer’s political columnist, Jason Williams, and yours truly on these pages predicted a much different Cincinnati council outcome, with candidates like Flynn, Tarbell and Independent Michelle Dillingham likely finishing ahead of some of those rookie Democratic candidates. A pre-election poll attributed to the Cincinnati Business Committee was similarly off the mark. So much for “expertise.” But with council elections now back to their old every two-year cycle, at least we can try to redeem ourselves in 2023!
Don Mooney is an attorney, a past member of the Cincinnati Planning Commission and is active in local politics.
