Analyzing the Reds: Team makes important first step extending Hunter Greene

The Cincinnati Reds made their biggest signal to date in their hopes to build a winning team by extending Hunter Greene to a six-year, $53 million contract extension last week. There have been reports that the Reds are also in talks with both Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft on contract extensions as well. The one notable name that was reported inactive in any extension talks was Jonathan India. He told Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer there were “no conversations” and “we will see what happens.” 

Many fans have asked the question why the Reds would go the route of trying to extend their young starting pitchers before their more established position players Jonathan India and Tyler Stephenson. India won the NL Rookie of the Year in 2021, while Tyler Stephenson played in 132 games that same season. During that same 2021 season, Greene and Lodolo spent most of the year in Double-A, while Graham Ashcraft started that year in High-A Dayton. India and Stephenson will each reach free agency at the end of the 2026 season, while Greene and Lodolo were set to reach free agency at the end of the 2027 season, and Graham Ashcraft will not reach free agency until the end of the 2028 season. 

There are two main reasons why the Reds strategy of locking up their young pitchers before the hitters makes sense: 

1. There are serious concerns if both Jonathan India and Tyler Stephenson can stick at their current positions. India ranks dead last among second baseman in outs above average since making his debut in 2021, and it’s not particularly close. If you have watched any games this season, Stephenson’s defense behind the plate has been shaky at best. Both players are still young and could certainly still improve their defense, but if they end up having to move positions, their overall value will significantly decrease at a less important position. There are of course still concerns with the young starting pitchers as well with their development, but they at worst appear to be league average starting pitchers. 

2. Starting pitchers are much more difficult to attract to pitch at Great American Ball Park than hitters. The Reds have had little trouble finding value in hitters—either spending a little bit on the free agent market with a team-friendly contract on Nick Castellanos or finding diamonds in the rough who can get a big boost from playing at Great American Ball Park (Drury, Pham, Gennett, Dietrich, etc.). The Reds also have a much deeper farm system, in the case of India with infielders, as each of the Reds top six prospects play 2B/SS/3B. The Reds drafted catcher Mat Nelson in the first round of 2021 and Logan Tanner in the second round of 2022. 

The Reds still have a lot of work to do bring winning baseball back to Cincinnati. The extension of Hunter Greene was an encouraging symbol of positive things to come.  

Nick Kirby is the co-host of Chatterbox Reds—the new home for daily Cincinnati Reds content all season long. Chatterbox Reds will have LIVE shows on YouTube after EVERY Reds game this season and daily podcasts as well. You can find Chatterbox Reds on YouTube on “Chatterbox Sports” here and by searching “Chatterbox Reds” wherever you listen to podcasts. They can be found on Apple Podcasts here. Nick can also be found on Twitter @nicholaspkirby.